Democrats have been wandering in the political wilderness for years—unsure how to counter President Donald Trump, divided over leadership, and plagued by doubts about who should carry the torch next. The party’s most visible figures often seem uninspired, and its next generation hasn’t exactly stirred confidence either.
But the political map shifted on Nov. 4, when Democrats didn’t just survive the mid-cycle test—they dominated it.
New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani waves to supporters after making his acceptance speech on Nov. 4.
From New Jersey to Georgia to California, the party scored wins across ideological lines. Progressives celebrated Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s victory in New York City, while moderates claimed bragging rights with Virginia’s Abigail Spanberger. Even California’s Proposition 50 passed easily, clearing the way for Gov. Gavin Newsom to engineer a Democratic gerrymander.
The results recall another off-year wave: 2017, when Democrats began their comeback after Trump’s first election. And just as then, this cycle’s success points to a broader realignment: a sign that the MAGA movement, for all its dominance, may finally be losing its grip.
Even Trump seems to sense it. At a post-election breakfast with Senate Republicans, he reportedly lamented the party’s poor showing, blaming his absence from the ballot. It was an unusually candid acknowledgment that his movement may not outlive him.
That’s the paradox of MAGA: It has always been a one-person show. The movement thrives when Trump’s name is on the ticket and falters when it’s not.
As president—especially during his first term—he benefited from a fluke stretch of low inflation and a businessman’s aura of competence. But that image has crumbled. His trade wars have fueled price spikes, the cost of living remains punishing, and Trump shows little focus—or interest—in fixing any of it.
Despite Americans’ desire for a secure border, they overwhelmingly believe that immigration is good for the nation. They don’t want ICE raids in their neighborhoods. They also didn’t ask for the destruction of Elon Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency or an ongoing culture war against universities.
Again and again, Trump and his cronies—Stephen Miller chief among them—have tried to invent crises to justify overreach. Voters appear to have had enough.
Trump adviser Stephen Miller
Trump’s approval ratings have plummeted, and his political brand looks exhausted. For rank-and-file Republicans who’ve tied their fortunes to him, a painful realization is setting in: Trump isn’t eternal.
Still, he could defy expectations—as he usually does—but time and reality are catching up. His second term has exposed the weakness at the core of his movement: Without him at the top, it splinters. And as legal and political pressure mounts, even Trump seems to understand what his allies won’t say aloud—the era of MAGA dominance is nearing its end.
The question now is what comes next. When Trump exits the stage, the GOP will face a civil war over its future. The peace he kept through sheer force of personality will collapse, leaving behind factions too divided to win nationally.
For now, Trump still wields enormous power. He can keep punishing blue states, bullying universities, and terrorizing immigrants. What he can’t do is make Americans like it.
He governed as though his narrow 2024 popular-vote win was a sweeping mandate. It wasn’t—and the country is recoiling from what that assumption has unleashed. And now, MAGA’s future looks far murkier than it did a year ago.
The only real question left is how Trump leaves the stage: by choice or by scandal. His authoritarian instincts make all scenarios possible. But America’s saving grace may be its federal structure—and the sheer incompetence of the movement he built. Full-blown autocracy, it turns out, is challenging to maintain.
As the year winds down, even Trump may be starting to grasp that.
