Republicans are in a full-on panic following Tuesday’s special election in Tennessee’s 7th District, after the GOP candidate underperformed Donald Trump by a whopping 13-point margin.
And it’s easy to see why.
Republicans had to spend $3.5 million to defend this seat. Given that there are roughly 102 GOP-held House seats that voted for Trump by smaller margins than Tennessee’s 7th, according to data from The Downballot, that would mean Republicans would need to spend hundreds of millions of dollars in areas that were not expected to be competitive.
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Even worse for the GOP is that if every House race in the 2026 midterms swung toward Democrats as much as it did in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, Democrats would knock off a whopping 44 Republican seats, according to Downballot data.
That would amount to even more seats than the 40 Democrats picked up on net in the 2018 midterms, when Trump’s unpopularity and Republicans’ failed Obamacare repeal effort led to a blue wave.
“Tonight’s election results prove exactly what the DCCC has known all along—Democrats are on offense not just in the standard swing districts but in red terrain across the country,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Madison Andrus said in a statement. “Our expansive battlefield shows that Democrats are ready to fight in rural districts, in Latino communities, in Trump country, and everywhere in between. House Republicans are officially on notice—Democrats are taking back the majority in 2026.”
The DCCC specifically listed out nine GOP-held seats currently rated as safely Republican or heavily leaning toward the GOP that Democrats are now targeting—including Reps. Andy Ogles of Tennessee; Cory Mills, Maria Elvira Salazar, and Anna Paulina Luna of Florida; and Eli Crane of Arizona.
Of course, not every contest would see a uniform swing toward Democrats. Candidates and elections still matter at the end of the day.
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Yet given that Democrats only need to net three seats for a majority, they are well on their way to securing the House majority in 2026.
“The GOP should be running for the hills this morning because the blue wave is building,” CNN’s Harry Enten said Wednesday morning, adding that since 2005, the party that overperformed in special elections went on to win the House in the midterm elections.
“Excuse time for Republicans is over,” Enten added, “Because I hear all about these special elections, ‘Oh the turnout is so low it’s not representative of what will happen in a midterm election.’ The turnout last night in Tennessee’s 7th District was equal to the turnout in the 2022 midterm election. So the blue wave? It seems to be building right out of the center of Tennessee.”
