Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District special election shouldn’t be remotely competitive, with President Donald Trump having won it by more than 22% in 2024.
But Republicans have been throwing money into the contest over the last few weeks, fearing that Trump’s unpopularity combined with the fact that it’s an off-year could cost the GOP the seat. Democrats are also spending heavily, hoping to boost Aftyn Behn and pull off what in a normal election year would seem like an unimaginable feat.
Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn campaigns ahead of Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District special election
And an Emerson College poll released Wednesday shows that Republicans have good reason to panic. The survey shows that the race is a dead heat, with Republican Matt Van Epps leading Behn by just 2 points—49% to 47%.
Even worse for Republicans is that Behn is actually leading the race with voters who cast an early ballot.
“The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on election day, and who stays home,” Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said. “Those who report voting early break for Behn, 56% to 42%, whereas those who plan to vote on Election Day break for Van Epps, 51% to 39%.”
Emerson’s results show that the race has significantly tightened since mid-October, when two public polls showed Van Epps leading by 8% and 10%, respectively.
While special elections are notoriously difficult to poll, it’s not surprising that this election is close. Democrats have been overperforming in special elections across the country since Trump returned to office, on average performing 13 points better than they did in the 2024 presidential election.
And Trump is clearly panicking.
“I am asking all America First Patriots in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, who haven’t voted yet, to please GET OUT AND VOTE for MAGA Warrior Matt Van Epps, tomorrow, November 26th, the last day to vote early in person,” Trump wrote on X Tuesday. “You can win this Election for Matt! PLEASE VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement.”
Republican candidate Matt Van Epps casts his ballot at an early voting site in Tennessee.
If Republicans lose this seat, House Speaker Mike Johnson will be in a world of hurt.
As it stands, Republicans hold just 219 seats in the House. If Van Epps loses, that would bring it down to just 218—the bare minimum majority. And with GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia resigning in January, Johnson could lose the majority before the 2026 midterms even take place.
In fact, anonymous House Republicans who are angry that Johnson has defended Trump’s every whim instead of sticking up for his own members said that more GOP resignations could be on the horizon.
One irate GOP lawmaker even predicted that Johnson will lose his gavel.
“It’s a tinder box,” they told Punchbowl News. “Morale has never been lower. Mike Johnson will be stripped of his gavel and they will lose the majority before this term is out.”
No matter what happens, a close race in Tennessee would be a terrible sign for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms. If the GOP has to defend seats next November, then they aren’t just going to lose the House majority—they’re going to lose it massively.
We’ve certainly got our popcorn ready.
