Democrats caved on the six-week shutdown, despite polling showing them narrowly winning the public opinion battle. But even that polling may have understated how much the shutdown hurt Republicans. President Donald Trump himself blamed it for the GOP’s miserable electoral performance two weeks ago.
The cave was stupid. But it raises a different question worth examining: What would winning have actually looked like?
“When hell freezes over” by David Horsey
Democrats’ core demand was reinstating Affordable Care Act health insurance subsidies. They didn’t get them. But imagine they had.
Those subsidies are used disproportionately by rural, red-state conservatives. “Nearly six in ten Marketplace enrollees (57%) live in congressional districts represented by a Republican,” reported KFF. “Generally, enrollment in ACA Marketplace coverage by congressional district is largest in the South. At least 10% of the population is enrolled in ACA Marketplace plans throughout all congressional districts in Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina, along with almost all in Texas and Utah.”
The people most reliant on these subsidies are rural Americans, who lean heavily conservative. A policy brief from the National Rural Health Association estimates that rural Americans save an average of $890 per year from the enhanced subsidies—”28% more than their urban counterparts.”
So Senate Democrats were fighting hardest for a benefit primarily used by conservatives.
If Democrats had actually won that concession, then what? Would they get credit from a demographic that has abandoned them wholesale? Would Fox News suddenly celebrate Democrats for protecting its viewers’ access to affordable health care?
Would Democrats be able to communicate the victory effectively, given their chronic inability to message accomplishments—and given the near-total absence of any meaningful left-wing partisan media ecosystem?
Of course not.
More likely, Trump would take credit for “saving” his supporters’ health care. And even if he didn’t bother, his supporters would give him credit anyway.
The Democratic cave angered activists, but the broader voter base remains mostly oblivious. Had Democrats won, the rural Republicans benefiting most would have stayed just as oblivious to what their own party tried to take away from them.
Related | Enough Senate Democrats appear ready to cave on the shutdown—for nothing
Now, instead, they’ll lose that health care. Senate Republicans will vote in mid-December to strip those subsidies away, right before a pivotal midterm election in which health care and affordability will be central issues. When rural conservatives receive their new, much higher premium bills, the blame will sit squarely with the GOP.
Democrats don’t need those voters to switch parties. Our party brand is too damaged to expect that. But depressing Republican turnout is almost as valuable as flipping votes. A disgusted rural conservative who stays home is effectively half a vote for Democrats.
So the irony is that by caving to the GOP yet again—reinforcing the weak Democratic brand that drives activists up the wall—Democrats may have actually improved their electoral position next year.
