Survey Says is a weekly series rounding up the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics or culture.
The blame game
For six weeks, Democrats held the line. They watched as the government limped through the longest shutdown in U.S. history, insisting Republicans bore the blame. After all, Donald Trump controls the presidency, the courts, and both chambers of Congress.
And for the most part, voters agreed.
A YouGov poll released on Monday found that 34% of Americans still blamed Republicans in Congress for the shutdown, compared with 31% who faulted Democrats, and 26% who held both parties equally responsible. Another survey from the same pollster found that most Americans felt little direct impact: 36% said they were “not at all” affected, while 23% reported being affected “a little.” The political fallout, in other words, was landing squarely on the GOP, though Democrats picked up incremental blame as the shutdown dragged on.
A separate YouGov/The Economist survey showed Americans’ approval of congressional Democrats’ handling of the shutdown at 30%, with 50% disapproving. Republicans fared slightly worse but were essentially tied: 30% approved of their party’s performance, while 55% disapproved.
Tracking YouGov data since October that mentions Trump, Democrats’ lead in blame narrows slightly—but they didn’t absorb a disproportionate share. Some voters shifted from blaming Trump or Republicans to blaming both parties, leaving the GOP with slightly less direct blame as the shutdown wore on.
Navigator Research, however, found that blame stayed largely consistent over the last six weeks: 48% of Americans held Trump and congressional Republicans responsible, compared with 34% who blamed congressional Democrats. Among independents, the gap was 22 points. Views of what Republicans and Trump were fighting for deteriorated, while Democrats’ positions held steady.
Yet, even with blame directed mainly at the GOP, it was the Democrats who blinked first.
Earlier this week, a small group of Senate Democrats broke ranks and joined Republicans to approve a stopgap funding measure reopening the government. The bill cleared the House on Wednesday, and Trump signed it soon after, officially ending the 43-day shutdown.
What did Democrats get in return? Not much. There were some modest wins: the deal keeps SNAP—the federal food assistance program—funded through September 2026, ensuring families won’t face benefit interruptions and shielding food aid from future budget fights. The Trump administration also agreed to reinstate federal employees laid off during the shutdown through reductions in force and to bar mass firings for the duration of the resolution.
Related | GOP’s shutdown isn’t working out for them
But Democrats’ central demand—an extension of Affordable Care Act health insurance subsidies—was dropped. The party provided key votes to end a crisis that had, politically, been tilting in their favor.
Frustration inside the party was immediate. Some Democrats tried to frame the retreat as strategic—that the shutdown had helped “crystallize” the fight over health care heading into the 2026 midterms. However, many lawmakers and activists were perplexed that leaders caved when polls showed public opinion breaking their way.
The skepticism wasn’t misplaced. A YouGov poll found that 38% of Americans believed Republicans benefited more from the deal, versus just 9% for Democrats. A separate YouGov poll released Wednesday painted a more nuanced picture: 31% of adults said Democrats were most responsible for ending the shutdown, 26% credited Republicans, and another 26% said both parties played an equal role.
Many on the left felt the party had room to press harder, particularly with public patience holding and visible signs of strain within the White House. Even among Democrats, the appetite to hold out remained high. The YouGov/Economist poll found Americans nearly split: 41% said Democrats should resist until health care funding changes were secured, while 39% disagreed. Among Democrats, 80% supported leaders holding firm in the shutdown fight, with just 8% favoring a fold.
“I don’t think many people are going to see this as a success. That doesn’t mean that voters will blame Democrats—they might blame the Republicans and Trump. But certainly, Democrats aren’t going to get much credit for shutting down the government and not getting anything in return,” said Matt Grossmann, a political science professor at Michigan State University.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and fellow Democrats speak on the health care funding fight on the steps of the House before votes to end the government shutdown on Nov. 12.
Ultimately, political calculations mattered little. Republican leaders refused to negotiate over health care subsidies while the government remained closed. Trump briefly suggested a compromise, then reversed course, urging Republicans to drop the subsidies entirely in favor of expanding health savings accounts. Any hope for a deal evaporated.
At the same time, Democrats faced pressure from the human toll. Federal workers went weeks without pay, while SNAP recipients braced for missed benefits as the holidays approached. Whatever political advantage the party held collided with the reality of millions caught in the crossfire.
So they folded—at least for now.
“We’re talking about a minority of Democratic senators. It could be the case that most people wanted to continue and were taking solace in the public polling,” Grossmann said. “But others were concerned about the actual implications of the shutdown. They were weighing the ongoing shutdown against the diminishing possibility of concessions, and those senators seemed to think further delay was increasingly unlikely to pay off.”
Even in folding, Democrats gained little. There may never be a vote to extend ACA subsidies, and Americans remain skeptical of the deal itself. When YouGov asked about public reaction to the resolution ending the shutdown, 37% approved, while 29% disapproved. Democrats were the most critical, with 47% disapproving versus 31% in favor.
Historically, shutdowns end when the provoking party can no longer bear the pain. Democrats may have been winning politically this time, but they made scant headway on policy. They now vow to continue pushing for health insurance extensions with the government open. The next funding deadline looms in late January, bringing the risk of another shutdown.
Some Democrats say they may try again. Asked if she’d consider another shutdown fight, New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen said, “That’s certainly an option that everybody will consider.”
Grossmann remains skeptical about a repeat.
“Some Democrats learned that it wasn’t worth it, and others learned that their colleagues were going to cave in the end. So it doesn’t seem very efficacious to do it again,” he said. “It’s possible that Democrats will still use the threat of a shutdown to extract concessions, but another full shutdown over the same issue seems unlikely.”
Still, the episode underscored a familiar dynamic in Washington: Winning the polling war doesn’t guarantee leverage at the bargaining table. Republicans often prove more willing to endure political and economic pain, while Democrats—despite public sympathy—can be pressed into early compromise.
Any updates?
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Trump is on track to set a record for the most deportations in a single year—a campaign marked by Halloween raids and the deaths of more than a dozen people in ICE custody. New polling from Data for Progress shows the public isn’t on board. Seventy percent—including 53% of Republicans—rejected agents restraining children with zip ties during raids. Similar majorities disapproved of ICE using rubber bullets (58%), “pepper balls” (57%), or tear gas (55%) on protesters, detaining legal residents in court (63%), and conducting late-night deportation raids (57%)—a sign of just how far Trump’s immigration dragnet sits from public opinion.
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Approval of Trump’s handling of the government has fallen sharply since early in his second term, a new Associated Press–NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll finds—and much of the discontent is coming from within his own party. Just 33% of Americans now approve of Trump’s management of the government, down from 43% in March. The drop is driven largely by Republicans and independents losing faith. Among Republicans, approval fell from 81% to 68%, while support among independents plummeted from 38% to 25%.
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A new YouGov/Economist poll finds that a notable share of Republicans are willing to acknowledge that Trump is racist—a striking admission given how much of his political brand has centered on attacking people of color when convenient. According to the survey, just 55% of Republicans said the word “racist” does not describe Trump, while 5% said it does. Democrats were far more direct, with 75% agreeing the label fits, along with 46% of independents.
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Turns out, even plenty of Republicans aren’t convinced Trump had nothing to do with Jeffrey Epstein’s alleged sex trafficking scandal. A new YouGov poll shows only about two-thirds of GOP voters (67%) believe Trump didn’t take part in Epstein’s crimes. The public overall is more divided—44% think Trump was involved, 32% say he wasn’t, and nearly a quarter aren’t sure.
Vibe check
Americans’ confidence in their government is scraping the bottom of the barrel, according to new Gallup data. Fewer than half—45%—say they trust Washington to handle international problems, and even fewer, just 38%, have faith in its ability to manage domestic affairs.
Among the three branches, Congress fares the worst at 32%, while the courts top out at a modest 49%. The topline numbers have barely moved since last year—but that stability hides sharp partisan swings.
Republicans’ trust in government has surged under Trump, rising 83 percentage points for the executive branch alone, while Democrats’ confidence has cratered by as much as 78 points. Independents, meanwhile, remain broadly distrustful of both sides.
Gallup’s data show that trust no longer rests in institutions themselves, but in which party holds power. In the 1970s, even opposition voters showed majority trust in Washington; today, just one in five do. The government’s credibility, once bipartisan, is now entirely partisan.
