Was the Nov. 4 Democratic sweep an anomaly, or are Republicans truly in deep trouble?
A special election just three weeks away will give us the answer, and the implications stretch far beyond one congressional seat. The results could shape whether the GOP continues its push to redraw maps in several states—and whether they’re willing to continue working with President Donald Trump.
GOP Rep. Mark Green of Tennessee announced in July that he is resigning.
The congressional seat in Tennessee’s 7th District is open after GOP Rep. Mark Green announced his resignation in July. Democrat Aftyn Behn is facing Republican Matt Van Epps in a district that Trump carried 60% to 38% in 2024.
On paper, this should be a routine GOP handoff in a deeply conservative, mostly rural district. But Republicans are watching this race closely, because the margin could determine how aggressively they proceed with Trump-driven redistricting schemes in places like Indiana and Florida.
Their strategy for squeezing out more House seats depends on siphoning Republican voters from their safest districts and injecting them into competitive or Democratic-leaning ones. That could make those districts more winnable for the GOP, but it leaves the once-safe Republican incumbents holding thinner margins.
In a calm political environment, trimming down a strong GOP district wouldn’t raise many alarms. But with conditions shifting and another potential blue wave on the horizon, those incumbents might suddenly not feel so invincible.
Democrat Aftyn Behn is running against Republican Matt Van Epps in Tennessee’s 7th District.
Tennessee’s 7th District is a rare chance to test the political climate in a race with few direct electoral ramifications. Republicans will almost certainly keep it—the question is by how much.
If Van Epps wins by 18 or more points, Republicans will breathe easier and continue their effort to manufacture additional seats in red states. But if the margin slips below that, anxiety will spike. And if Behn pushes this into single digits, it becomes a five-alarm fire inside the GOP.
That kind of showing wouldn’t just derail further redistricting gambits, but it could also force Republicans to reconsider their embrace of Trump, with the Epstein files presenting an obvious off-ramp.
It’s unusual for a race with no bearing on House control to carry this much weight, but this one does. And if you’re looking to give Behn a boost, this is an excellent time to do it.
